On a weekday morning, an advertising van is driving through the narrow streets of Runcorn town center. The van features a black and white picture of Nigel Farage with a quote from the Reform UK leader: “We are going to have to move to an insurance-based system of healthcare.”

The byelection in Runcorn has officially begun after sitting MP Mike Amesbury announced his intention to resign. This vote could become a significant test for Keir Starmer’s government. Although the vote date has yet to be determined, Labour has already chosen Karen Shore as their candidate, a teacher and local councillor. Reform, the main opponent of Labour, will announce their candidate early next week.

In July of last year, Labour easily won the seat, securing over half of the vote. Now, the party is facing challenges as polls predict either a close win or a loss to Reform. The byelection was triggered after Mike Amesbury was suspended by Labour Party for punching a constituent in Frodsham. He received a 10-week prison sentence before the term was suspended upon appeal. Though the byelection reasons involve Amesbury, disgruntled voters cite Starmer as their main reason for not voting Labour.

Similar to Reform, Conservative voters have expressed disappointment in their party, with a Reform source stating that their message resonates with both groups. Voter dissatisfaction with Labour and Starmer may result in Reform boosting their chances in the election.

Ruth Hayter, a 76-year-old resident of Runcorn, voted Labour but found the party to be “a bit of a disappointment.” Andrew McClean, 80, said he will not be voting Labour as they implemented policies that affected his lifestyle. Lynne Bennett, 70, will now be voting Reform, along with her family, citing concerns with Labour.

However, despite Reform’s problems, voters in Runcorn still support the party. Helen, a 32-year-old business owner, will still vote for Reform and supports their views on tax increases. Matthew Roberts, a 22-year-old painter, is a fan of Nigel Farage and remains unbothered by the in-fighting within Reform.

Reform’s support among pensioners is strong, which may benefit the party as more elderly individuals are likely to turn out during the byelection. Despite these advantages, Reform’s candidate still faces an uphill battle against Labour’s incumbent majority.

Shore defended Labour’s record in government, highlighting their accomplishments such as delivering extra NHS appointments and raising the minimum wage for thousands of local residents. She emphasizes the need for a strong, local voice for Runcorn and Helsby at the heart of the government.

In the affluent Cheshire villages, the Conservatives perform better than Labour, and the Green party also sees success there. Chris Copeman, a local councillor for Helsby, is confirmed to be the Green’s candidate for the byelection. He hopes to do well enough to push the Conservatives into fourth place on polling day.

In Helsby, voters tend to be more sympathetic towards Labour. Despite uncertainty over their votes, many are scared of Reform winning and may consider voting Labour to prevent it.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/15/runcorn-helsby-byelection-big-test-starmer-reform