If the political upheaval in the US has left you aghast, then the staid and predictable election this weekend in Western Australia might offer some comfort. With Premier Roger Cook so confident in his party’s victory, the state’s only newspaper refrained from releasing any public opinion polls until the very eve of the election. According to University of Western Australia political analyst William Bowe, “There is more polling in Tasmania than there is in Western Australia.”

However, after an uninspiring and hastily held WA leaders’ debate last month, the big question remains how far the Liberals, led by Libby Mettam, can step back into the political limelight after their drubbing in Australia’s most one-sided election in 2021, when they shrunk to just two seats and lost their opposition status. Cook, while not as flamboyant as his Covid-era predecessor, Mark McGowan, still enjoys popularity among voters.

Publication of polls on Friday painted a clear picture of Cook leading the preferred premier stakes against Libby Mettam. These late polls confirmed the predictions made by analysts that the Liberals may fare similarly to the 2017 election, where the long-standing Barnett government was ousted, leaving the party with just 13 lower house seats.

Martin Drum, a senior lecturer in politics at the University of Notre Dame, reckons the Liberals would need to win back around 11 seats to be competitive again. However, he expects them to win back nine seats in the Perth metro area, in addition to seats in Blackwood, Albany, and Kalgoorlie.

The election is also a game-changer for the Nationals, WA’s official opposition, who could potentially fare poorly due to the introduction of a reformed voting system for the upper house. Under the old system, rural areas had the same representation as more populous metropolitan areas, benefitting the Nationals. Now, with the value of their votes set to decrease, they are expected to retain only one or two lower-house seats.

Furthermore, Bowe predicts the Greens will erode Labor’s upper-house majority, potentially winning four seats, one less than their 2001 record. With the shifting political landscape and the increasing presence of independents, both WA and federal levels are seeing a metamorphosis in voter alignments and political representation.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/08/wa-western-australia-election-update-roger-cook-labor-libby-mettam-liberal