Recent news has featured ongoing protests near asylum hotels, a sequence of government statements regarding asylum seekers, and the Reform party’s conference discussions about immigration, making it the hot topic of the season.
In August, nearly half of the British population (48%) expressed concern about immigration as a primary issue affecting the UK. This year has seen the highest levels of concern regarding immigration since Ipsos began polling on this topic in 1974, except for a similar peak during the 2015 Europe migrant crisis.
However, do the statistics support the widespread concerns, and are all claims about immigrants accurate?
Immigration is declining from a record peak
Despite growing public concerns about immigration in recent months, official figures indicate that the number of individuals entering the country is actually decreasing, though it’s from a record high.
Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows that net migration has primarily fluctuated between 200,000 and 300,000 people per year since 2011. However, following the implementation of Brexit on New Year’s Eve 2020, there has been a significant increase in the number of immigrants. This surge is referred to as the “Boriswave,” occurring after the new post-Brexit immigration policy introduced by Boris Johnson.
Recent numbers indicate that this wave is subsiding. Net migration halved in 2024, and with recent rule changes, it is expected to decrease further. This is primarily due to a reduction in health and care visas and a decrease in individuals seeking refuge from the Ukraine war or fleeing the Taliban through now-closed humanitarian schemes.
Student visas have also seen a decline. Applications decreased by 1.5% in August (when student visa applications typically surge before the academic year) compared to 2024, and by 18% from the same month in 2023.
Who are the migrants, and how many are authorized to work?
In comments to the BBC following his conference speech, Reform leader Nigel Farage accused Boris Johnson of allowing “millions of people into Britain, most of whom, by the way, don’t even work and are costing us a fortune.” However, the available evidence complicates this narrative.
Most asylum seekers are not allowed to work. Despite significant media attention on small boats and asylum seekers, these groups make up a minuscule portion of the overall number of people arriving in the UK – less than 5% of Home Office visas granted and arrivals detected in 2025.
The largest group of individuals entering the UK are students (about 47%, including dependents). Students are not expected to work but contribute by paying tuition fees for their degrees and may transition to paid work afterward.
The second largest group consists of individuals on working visas, accounting for 20%, with their dependents making up an additional 11%.
How many individuals on other visas are employed?
Currently, the available data on immigrant earnings is incomplete and is further complicated by ongoing issues with the ONS labour force survey.
Madeleine Sumption, the director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, noted that while the data on employment is imperfect and employment rates “vary widely by immigration category,” recent migrants’ employment rates are “not far off” those of existing residents or long-standing migrants.
A Home Office report successfully linked certain visa types granted between 2019 and 2023 to pay as you earn (PAYE) earnings in the 2023-24 financial year, with the majority recording earnings. For those without records, it is likely that most have already left the country.
It is not just individuals on working visas who are employed. The report also found that nearly half of those entering on family visas (48%) had some PAYE earnings (this figure does not include the self-employed or those who have left the country).
Recent discussions about immigration have focused on dependents – family members who can immigrate with the main visa holder. New health and care workers were prevented from bringing their children and other dependents by the Sunak government, as were most students.
PAYE data suggests that many dependents do work – 81% of health and care worker dependents, 45% of skilled worker dependents, and 25% of senior or specialist visa dependents received earnings (this figure does not take into account the self-employed or the fact that many will have left the country. Adjusting these figures to account for primary visa holders who have left increases the estimates further).
Among all types of individuals arriving in the UK, newly arrived refugees (around 28% according to some estimates) and those on humanitarian visas are the least likely to be in employment.
Regarding overall earnings, the Migration Observatory found that immigrant earnings grow quickly – the median non-EU immigrant worker in 2024 earned similar to or slightly more than the median UK worker.
So, will recent migrants, as Farage claimed, eventually cost the UK a fortune? Based on the available data, we cannot yet determine the outcome – but considering that most individuals moving to the UK will not go through the school system and will also contribute towards their NHS treatment, it is unlikely they would cost more than others.
