There’s a joke spreading among Labour MPs regarding three envelopes in Soviet Russia. The instructions are to open them in order when encountering difficulties. Envelope one advises to blame the predecessor, which works. A year later, problems arise, leading to the opening of envelope two, which suggests restructuring the organization. This also buys some time. When another crisis emerges, envelope three is opened, advising to prepare three envelopes.
Keir Starmer’s challenge is that MPs believe he has already opened his first two envelopes. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to find anyone in the Labour party arguing that things aren’t going disastrously. The party fears that Starmer’s attempts to address the multiple difficulties faced over the past year have only unleashed more chaos.
The sacking of Peter Mandelson is the latest example. Despite concerns raised by ministers and security services, Starmer appointed him. MP’s political judgment is repeatedly questioned, turning attention to his “vision” for Britain – but it’s unclear what the prime minister truly believes in. Starmer, a non-ideological politician, believes in demonstrating change through making material differences in people’s lives.
Despite these efforts, there’s a growing belief that Starmer is not up to the task of finding solutions. Many in government and close to Starmer urge calm, emphasizing his majority and the time before the next election to turn things around. However, there’s an increasing doubt about Starmer’s ability, not just in terms of political judgment, ideological vision, or personality but that he never had it in the first place. Labour’s polling has fallen significantly in its first year in power, worsened by the rise of Reform UK.
The question of “how” – there’s discussion among MPs about who and how to oust the prime minister. The summer recess highlighted the need for change. Some don’t believe Starmer can survive until May’s local elections, with Wales and councils at risk of falling to Reform, and Scotland staying with the SNP.
Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson row led to more anger among MPs, particularly with Morgan McSweeney. However, he’s seen as a lightning rod for their anger and disappointment. Labour’s procedure for leadership change is not as straightforward as the Conservative party’s. If a vote of confidence is called and carried, a leader would be expected to resign, but Jeremy Corbyn didn’t step down despite 80% of his MPs not backing him.
The question of “who” – there are uncertain and strong candidates for succession. Angela Rayner, forced to stand down, is out of the picture. Ed Miliband, Louise Haigh, Wes Streeting, Bridget Phillipson, and Shabana Mahmood are seen as potential successors. However, Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is gaining more warmth, being the only Labour politician with a net positive rating from the public and appealing across the party. He’s ready to come back but faces challenges, including eligibility to run.
Starmer’s allies argue that he’s frustrated by internal challenges and external noise. His efforts to improve government delivery and reshape the narrative have been undermined. They believe he’s well-positioned to address Nigel Farage’s populism but face dangerous flashpoints, including immigration and budget tax rises. Despite these challenges, there’s a fear that a new leader would also fail in addressing the deep systemic crises facing the country.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2025/sep/13/can-keir-survive-inside-the-plot-to-bring-down-the-prime-minister
