Labour is experiencing a loss of support most significantly among those who feel financially vulnerable, even as it is urged to focus on improving living standards rather than issues like culture wars and immigration. Recent polling and analysis from experts on voter trends show a strong connection between economic insecurity and the diminishing support for Labour, with many voters who were previously in support of the party now looking for alternative political options.

Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, has faced pressure from some of his own party members to adopt a firmer stance on migration and crime due to the rising popularity of Reform UK, a right-wing populist party led by Nigel Farage. However, studies from the University of Oxford have found that the leading reasons for voters leaving Labour are concerns over economic instability and personal financial security, rather than immigration or cultural issues.

The analysis by Prof Jane Green and Prof Geoffrey Evans, commissioned by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, showed a stark shift in voter sentiment. Almost half of those leaving Labour cited economic concerns as their motivation, with those expressing financial uncertainty being more likely to abandon the party. This indicates a significant issue with “voter volatility,” with voters seeking parties that promise solutions to their financial struggles.

Green emphasized the importance for Labour to address economic security. She argued that a party that delivers on economic stability and supports individuals through hardship would be seen as more secure in the elections. Without this focus, she warned of continued political volatility and potential fragmentation within the electoral landscape.

This undercurrent of economic insecurity is being watched closely by government insiders in light of growing public support for Reform, which has gained attention as a potential threat to both Labour and the Conservative parties. The analysis suggests that Labour’s decisions, including the cutoff of the winter fuel allowance and what was perceived as a negative stance on the economy early in their term, have particularly affected those already concerned about their economic future.

The study also highlighted a shift among a demographic typically considered stable in their political leanings: those between 35-39 years old. This age group has become more susceptible to economic instability and more likely to change their political allegiances, signaling a need for Labour to proactively address these vulnerabilities.

In this context, analysis points towards Labour’s need to craft a robust economic policy that can restore confidence among voters, particularly those in the mid-life demographic who are feeling the strain economically and politically. The party’s response to these findings will likely determine its success in retaining and expanding its voter base.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/25/labour-support-voters-economy-insecure-finances-study